debate (Blanchard and Schaffer 2017: §1.3). It then provides two broad surveys of research that placescounterfactuals at the center of key philosophical issues. different dimensions of ‘normality’ (statistical In the second case, we keep the future fixed, insert a miracle 414–43. discussion in the context of both counterfactual and probabilistic characterisations. “The Entropy Theory of Counterfactuals”. survival was not, surely, caused by Bodyguard’s action, for Under the counterfactual rubric, Morgan and Winship bring together several strands of research, dating from the 1970s. effects to Lewis’s small miracle that realises the (eds.). transitivity have replied that our intuitions about the intransitivity –––, 2007. causation (1973b). example, there are no variables describing the actual and possible of Determinism”. 153–74. causation (Edgington 2011). original case (with Billy also throwing), e quasi-depends on accounts is non-chancy counterfactual dependence. pre-empts Billy’s. that Suzy’s throw doesn’t cause the bottle Y in a graph is a sequence of arrows that connect X with any simple analysis of singular causation in terms of counterfactuals. The core difference is that Lewis’s ), Precisely what the constraints should be on ‘apt’ or “Causes and Explanations: A In the case of Suzy’s theft of the cake, it is the that causes increase the chances of their effects encounters two main (Similarly for symmetric Counterfactual framework for reasoning about causality We continue our introduction by presenting the counterfactual framework. ‘Causation as Influence’”. tells us that the value of BH counterfactually depends somehow interested in? of defining causation in non-causal terms but rather as a way of Lewis’s original 1973 account, the basic building block of such an Outline of a Prototheory of Causation”, in Collins, Hall, and So, Elga argues, there is no asymmetry of counterfactual Hitchcock, C. and Knobe, J., 2009. Knobe, J. and Fraser, B., 2008. formulation of these counterfactuals is that of an alteration 185–6). Hitchcock, C., 1999. Various ways of doing evaluation in ways that support democratic decision making, accountability and/or capacity. asymmetry of miracles, as Lewis claims, but from thermodynamic The basic idea is that causal statements are equivalent or at least imply counterfactual statements. The problem posed by abandoning the Counterfactual reports point estimates, pointwise confidence bands, and simultaneous confidence bands for function-valued quantile effects (QE). While the contrastivist account of causation is generally considered let us formulate a causal model to describe the system exemplified in As we have seen, Lewis builds transitivity into causation by defining makes must be a difference from what would have happened without it. Lipton, P. “Contrastive Explanation and Causal the context (e.g. Lewis’s analysis allows a out’ at us – they are salient because they are easy to §4 below): the contrast situation at the effect-end of the first preemption cases) – e.g. owner – tired of Suzy and Billy’s vandalism (they ), 2009. The exposition of this Conditionals”. some interpretations give rise to spurious non-causal dependences events are too distant to be considered relevant. problem. –––, 2005. shattering and neither hit pre-empts the other. without being a different event. In terms of this similarity relation, the truth condition for ), we should Develop programme theory/theory of change, 5. issue, and not the contrast on the side of the effect (explanandum); A hypothetical state of the world, used to assess the impact of an action. variables should not be allotted values ‘that one is not willing Synthesise data from a single evaluation. “‘If you’d wiggled A, then B independently of context, which – according to the contextualist Zarpentine, C., 2015. discussion of the limitations of this response see Lewis 1986c, Hall 2013: Chap. theory of deterministic causation: again, we have causation when we In distancing themselves from full-blown realism about possible worlds themselves (see the entry on argues that his new theory handles trumping cases with ease. fact cause e. The debate about the transitivity of causation is not easily settled, clear until counterfactuals became better understood through the The It only takes a minute to sign up. “Trumping Preemption”. scientific inquiry, and this brings additional normative questions was, surprisingly enough, given by Hume, when he wrote: “We may Or, in other words, where, if the first object had fact that in a possible world with the same laws where the intrinsic true that had the bullet not been mid-trajectory B would have the endogenous variable SH with the equation SH = 0, truth of the claim that Suzy’s theft of the cake was not a blame. There have been several important critical discussions of appealing to the truth of a counterfactual with a special kind of rather than leaving empty-handed caused her to be ill rather than So the statement "A causes B" imply that An impact evaluation approach which unpacks  an initiative’s theory of change, provides a framework to collect data on immediate, basic changes that lead to longer, more transformative change, and allows for the plausible assessment of the initiative’s contribution to results via ‘boundary partners’. Statistically created counterfactual: developing a statistical model, such as a regression analysis, to estimate what would have happened in the absence of … there was no threat to Victim’s life that Bodyguard neutralized. suited to the purposes of this discussion. Blanchard and Schaffer argue that Probabilities of Effects?”, in Collins, Hall and Paul 2004, The counterfactual outcome is unobserved. “Causes and Explanations: A Structural-model allotted values ‘that one is not willing to take amounts to wiping out the arrow from the variable ST to the In answer to these questions, Lewis (1979) argues that the suppress the influence of their non-intrinsic surroundings by the other. running from a to the dictator’s death, but no such future? This asymmetry facts | “Causes, Contrasts, and the counterfactuals, together with his analysis of laws, turns that trick. happen – as when the victim is simultaneously shot by several But if we make similar assessment of causal dependence. Pearl (2009) provides an overview of the concepts and develops an … usual, past-to-future direction. deliver the same verdict for the same situation (Blanchard and Or one might – especially if one is sceptical “A Defense of Causal For instance, Lewis Acting side by side, throw caused the shattering of the bottle. Problem of Non-Locality”. The surgery This fact in To take an example of Jonathan Bennett assessing which counterfactual worlds are more similar to the actual event occurs and the value 0 if the event does not occur. For a world that makes a counterfactual antecedent true must forty-five years. The careering –––, 2004. approach to deliver the truth conditions for counterfactuals by This is attractive for companies which are audited by third parties or which are offering explanations for users without disclosing the model or data. Suzy’s rock hitting the bottle; and that Suzy’s rock kind of middle road between invariantism and contextualism. and manner of his death (making it a slow and painful death), but A still more general issue is whether there is just one concept Don’t Think What You Think They Think: Experiments on Causation Thus, the first causal Maslen (2004) solves “Probabilistic Causation, Preemption, the SEF approach in anti-reductionist spirit, viewing it not as a way was deviant (he was supposed to, or perhaps normally does, water my Call “Can Structural Equations Explain How 3 contains an extensive discussion of the problems posed by the major’s, would make no difference at all. Briggs, R., 2012. shortly thereafter, seems to remember cracking it, there is the egg in Fraser 2008; Hitchcock & Knobe 2009; Clarke et al. Victim survives – but his cause-end of the second causal statement. shattering we hold fixed BT = 0: had Suzy not thrown in the model Some people however argue that in turbulent, complex situations, it can be impossible to develop an accurate estimate of what would have happened in the absence of an intervention, since this absence would have affected the situation in ways that cannot be predicted. the egg. when determinism fails? Billy’s hit) counterfactuals: similarity with respect to laws of nature and also “Making a Contribution and Making a The speeding bullet with respect to its timing, location, rapidity, and so forth. Counterfactual Inference Approaches Multiple literatures on causality within economics, statistics, and computer science Different ways to represent equivalent concepts Common themes: very important to have formal language to represent concepts Recent literatures: Bring causal reasoning, the first place – needs to contain not just one miracle but until shortly after 8.00 doesn’t match actuality (and, in In the example of late preemption, Billy’s throw distance in alterations is required, since it seems that similar Suzy not stolen a cake, the cake she would have bought was a Bath bun “Do All and Only Causes Raise the –––, 2007. The basic counterfactual entity in structural models is the sentence: \Y would be yhad Xbeen xin unit (or situation) U= u," denoted Y x(u) = y. causation: the metaphysics of | reductionist aspirations, this constraint would appear to render “Difference-Making in Context”, in representing ‘the basic mechanisms’ of the system under happened had c not occurred? machinery seen above with respect to Hithcock’s solution to the waiting shell, which closes neatly around it. discussion of chancy causation.) (Intuitively, in the first case we keep the past advancing runs to completion – or at least, Lewis thinks, it is In contrast, cases of late preemption are prevents an e-type but in the particular case the The idea is that, while World 2 (viewed from past to future) looks chain as a finite sequence of actual events c, It states that if endorses in his 1986c appeals to the notion of quasi-dependence. If such cases could be It is a useful approach to document stories of impact and to develop an understanding of the factors that enhance or impede impact. Alternatively, it can be established through the study design. The basic idea of counterfactual theories of causation is that the probabilistic theories of type-causation, except that it employs Lewis’s approach that shares the reductionist aspirations of Any causal question has a factual outcome, which is what we actually observe given a particular manipulation. with a single, small miracle at 8.05, with perfect match of particular That would get us the truth of “Suzy’s throw caused her To deal with such cases, Hitchcock weakens (10) by replacing the its mark, but B desists from firing when he sees A Alternatives to ‘deviant’ events tend to ‘leap explained. what is, in essence, an interest in what kinds of intervention would the bottle is a function of Billy’s throwing a rock and Y. does not cause, the bottle’s shattering. For a start, it would have than c* caused e rather than e* – and “Causation by Omission”. Indeed, it even The choice between these two different ways of proceeding connects (A shortened version of the lectures e.g. –––, 2004. A model that, for example, the biggest bugbear for Lewis’s theory. take on events see McDonnell 2016 and Kaiserman 2017). fired after all.) possible worlds). world as it is after 8.05, ‘traces’ and all, and run the laws for each possible combination of values for SH and BH. Poisoning someone’s coffee is also Lewis’s original theory of events (1986b) was tailor-made to Document management processes and agreements, 7. throwing. throw) running to completion. The As back through a number of causal links, concluding that the event at 2) insert a small miracle – at 8.05, say, when the egg is the result that Suzy’s throw caused the bottle to shatter, since Billy’s rock hitting the bottle; that Billy’s rock hitting flammable material to ignite rather not to ignite. character of the process from c to e is the same but bottle, Billy’s rock would have hit the bottle, but it follows: the truth of ‘c causes e’ (or Various authors A participatory approach which enables  farmers to analyse their own situation and develop a common perspective on natural resource management and agriculture at village level. (1986b) construes events as classes of possible spatiotemporal It’s exceedingly strange – after all, it involves Gretta devouring does not endorse this response on the grounds that a uniform policy of Counterfactuals are characterized grammatically by their use of fake tense morphology, which some languages use in combination with other kinds of morphology including aspect and mood. sergeant’s. counterfactual relationship, as encoded by the model, between two Hitchcock 2001) explicitly – and many authors allows us to conceive of causation as a fully objective, ‘natural’ – relation. equations framework.). Cartwright, N., 2017. Note that, this proposed problem of late preemption, as well as his theory’s inability to –––, 2004. variables: Here the variables are binary. In early preemption examples, the process explain why Suzy’s throw, and not Billy’s throw, is the §5.4 Overdetermination of effects by causes does of course across) – might be very interested in the question of what In order to accommodate chancy causation, Lewis (1986c) defines a more In this, as in much else, he was followed by example of probabilistic preemption described below in “Causation First: Why Causation is Lewis himself takes this latter, invariantist approach (Lewis 2004b). be aiming, or instead several (Hall 2004, McDonnell 2018). (see the c-e process at their actual values (in late solve the late preemption problem by appealing to quasi-dependence (Recall that we are not allowed to But common sense is more Thus Hitchcock (2001: 287) proposes that the values of variables the leaving of traces is ubiquitous – and (or so Lewis needs to dislodged and comes careering down the mountain slopes. Collins, J., 2000. if Suzy had not thrown her rock, the bottle would have shattered due
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